Preparations of the State Audit Office of Hungary for the Analysis of the Macroeconomic Risks to the State Budget
University Professor, Head of Department, Károli Gáspár University of the Reformed Church in Hungary, Director General of the Research Institute of the State Audit Office of Hungary
Published in: Public Finance Quarterly 2011/3 (p. 331-344.)
• the government’s macroeconomic projection contains elements of excessive risk,
• the projections of the various factors constitute a consistent system, and
• the planned appropriations of the fiscal revenues and expenditures that highly depend on the changes in macroeconomic parameters are in conformity with the macroeconomic projections of the government.
In addition to outlining the method of risk analysis, the article provides several examples to describe how the development trends of the Hungarian economy in the last 15–20 years influenced the macroeconomic environment of the state budget.
KEYWORDS: budget, fiscal forecast, fiscal policy
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE (JEL) KÓD: H61, H68, E62